I am a human ecologist building probabilistic models to de-risk agricultural choices for smallholder farmers and the organizations that support them. I apply transdisciplinary approaches to translate complex, localized knowledge—from indigenous communities to government planners—into systems understanding of decision problems and actionable forecasts to support them. Using Bayesian networks and Monte Carlo simulations, I quantify synergies and trade-offs in development interventions, pinpointing strategies that boost food security and income while minimizing social and environmental risks.