Intervention Forecasting and Monitoring: A Land Use Decision in Peri-Urban Hanoi Authors: Cory Whitney, Thi Thu Giang Luu, Hoa Bui Thi Khanh, Hung Pham-Van, Lisa Biber-Freudenberger, Simone Kathrin Kriesemer, Eike Luedeling Addressing the challenges of evidence-based decision-making in complex systems, our research applies decision analysis to land use decisions in peri-urban Hanoi. As global awareness of interconnected socio-ecological impacts grows, the lack of reliable, holistic information often hinders strategic planning. Our project seeks to mitigate this gap by developing and refining decision models that forecast and monitor potential interventions, guiding decision-makers with structured, data-driven insights. Our decision analysis approach begins by identifying core land use decisions and involving local experts to collaboratively construct a comprehensive conceptual model. Calibration training is employed to reduce cognitive biases in expert inputs, ensuring that the resulting mathematical models accurately simulate and analyze diverse scenarios. This iterative process includes model refinement based on stakeholder feedback, making our methodology adaptive and inclusive. Key visuals in our presentation outline the decision analysis steps, stakeholder engagement strategies, and our ex-ante forecasting timeline. Our intervention forecasting models explore the implications of maintaining agricultural production versus transitioning to alternative income generation activities, providing critical evidence to policymakers. Additionally, we draw on insights from the NIFAM project, which addresses global malnutrition through a transdisciplinary framework focused on sustainable food environments. Our Hanoi-based interventions include school gardens, school meal policy evaluation, and farm stands on factory land, each designed to enhance food security and nutrition while considering local contexts. These interventions are informed by stochastic models and local expertise, ensuring practical, impactful outcomes aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals. Our research showcases how co-developed, evidence-based models can guide land use decisions, ensuring sustainable development that benefits both local communities and the broader ecosystem. This presentation highlights our holistic systems approach, emphasizing the importance of stakeholder collaboration and adaptive decision-making in complex, resource-limited settings. For more information on our related work, visit: NIFAM Project Contact: Dr. Cory Whitney, cory.whitney@uni-bonn.de, University of Bonn